Montgomery Village, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

256
FXUS61 KLWX 010852
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region early this morning.
High pressure will then build to our north tonight before
pushing offshore on Sunday. As low pressure passes to the north,
a warm front will lift through the area Monday morning,
followed by a cold front Monday night. Another low pressure
system may approach toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure is pushing east of Cape Cod this morning. A
prefrontal trough is pushing east of the Blue Ridge, with the
primary cold front pushing south through Pennsylvania. Winds
slackened behind the departing rain, which allowed patchy dense
fog to develop. It appears the fog should clear as the
prefrontal trough pushes through, although there is some
uncertainty across the Virginia piedmont as winds will be
lighter. As the primary cold front pushes through early this
morning, winds will shift to the north and increase with 20-35
mph gusts. Some clouds may linger in the wake of the front
before clearing this afternoon. Upslope showers are also
occurring along and just behind the front in the Alleghenies.
These will initially be rain but may end as a brief period of
snow or freezing drizzle with little to no accumulation. Any
travel hazard would occur from the freeze over of wet roads as
temperatures fall into the 20s.

Winds will gradually decrease this afternoon and definitely
after sunset as high pressure builds to the north. Calendar day
high temperatures may be occurring currently in some areas
(upper 40s-lower 50s), as cold advection will result in steady
or falling temperatures after sunrise.

Dry air will advect into the area tonight with dew points
dropping into the single digits and teens. High clouds will
increase late, but there should be a period of clear skies and
light winds. This will allow lows to fall into the upper teens
to mid 20s...perhaps locally colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The high will be over New England by Sunday morning, resulting
in onshore surface flow. Meanwhile southwesterly winds aloft
will cause warm advection to occur. Precipitation appears
unlikely, but clouds will thicken. Can`t totally rule out some
freezing drizzle on the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies Sunday
morning, although the very dry air at the surface will likely be
the mitigating factor. Temperatures Sunday may depend on whether
mostly dense cirrus affects the area, or if a deck of low
stratus also develops (which would result in less insolation and
mixing). Even models that only have scattered lower clouds still
keep temperatures in the upper 30s/lower 40s, so have adjusted
temperatures down.

The high will progress eastward Sunday night as low pressure
moves north of the Great Lakes. As is typical, models have
trended stronger with the cold/dry air dam east of the
mountains. A few breaks in the clouds could occur as well.
Therefore lows have trended down into the lower to mid 30s.
Where the warm front can punch through (portions of the
Allegheny and Potomac Highlands), temperatures could rise
through the night. That`s important since lift associated with
the warm advection arm of low pressure over the Great Lakes
could produce some light upslope precip, which would occur in
the form of rain.

The low will track well north of the area Monday along a strong
upper level jet. Locally, the warm front should mix northward as
the high loses influence, allowing temperatures to surge well
above normal. While much of the area could reach the lower 60s,
the forecast has trended a little cooler since some cloud cover
could linger, especially closer to the Pennsylvania border
(where highs will likely stay in the 50s).

The timing of the cold front may have slowed down slightly
Monday night. However, it is still forecast to be a dry passage
east of the Alleghenies, where some light rain showers are
possible. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s/40s through the
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain near the Carolinas Tuesday.
To the north of the local area will be an area of weak high
pressure. This will bring light northerly winds and a cooler day
than Monday while remaining dry. It will still be above average by
about 10 degrees.

A weak UL wave and associated sfc low pressure will move through
Wednesday. Depending on timing and arrival of WAA/isentropic precip,
there could be a light wintry mix primarily in the form of ZR near
the Mason-Dixon and in any cooler pockets that hold cold air. This
should changeover to rain for most through the day. Still some
uncertainties on when precip exactly starts, which lowers confidence
on wintry precip. Wednesday will be cooler with highs close to climo
for the northern half of the CWA.

Rain will persist overnight into Thursday morning as another wave of
low pressure moves overhead. This low will bring warmer air into the
area as the warm front lifts north into New England. Highs Thursday
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most. If any sun breaks out,
70F is possible especially in central VA.

Quite a bit of spread heading into Friday. There could be remnant
showers if the cold front stalls nearby or it could be dry with the
cold front southeast of the area. Regardless, cooler with highs
closer to climo (still a few degrees above).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The TAFs have been challenging as patchy fog and low ceilings
developed behind the departing rain due to light winds. A
prefrontal trough is shifting winds to the west, which will help
clear out the fog. Still looking at the primary cold front to
cross between 10-13Z (perhaps slightly later at CHO), which will
result in a wind shift to the north and 25-30 kt gusts.
Guidance continues to indicate a brief band of MVFR ceilings in
the vicinity of the front. These do currently exist in
Pennsylvania and would likely move south with the front. CHO has
the lowest chance of these ceilings. VFR conditions are
expected by late morning, and wind gusts should be more in the
20-25 kt range by this afternoon. Winds will subside after
sunset with high pressure building to the north.

As the high moves offshore Sunday, a cold air damming pattern
will develop with light east winds gradually turning to the
south. The low level air will be very dry, but some guidance
indicates the eventual development of some lower ceilings Sunday
or Sunday night. Ensemble guidance indicates the chance of MVFR
ceilings being less than 50 percent, so will keep TAFs
conservative for now. There will however be dense cirrus.

A warm front will lift north Monday morning, ending the chance
for low ceilings. Southwest winds Monday will shift to the west
late Monday night as a dry cold front crosses.

VFR conditions Tuesday. MVFR conditions possible in periods of rain
Wednesday. Winds NNW Tuesday before turning E by Wed morning and
then more SE through the day. Winds remain light at 5-10 kts. Gusts
to 15 kts during the afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy dense marine fog is occurring early this morning as
warm, moist air sits over the cold waters. A cold front will
move through around dawn, clearing out the fog. There will also
be a surge of north-northwesterly winds up to 25-30 kt. Small
Craft Advisories have been issued through 6 PM for all waters,
lasting a little longer south of the Bay Bridge. Winds will
subside overnight as high pressure moves to the north.

Easterly flow on Sunday will gradually become southerly Sunday
night as the high moves offshore. A warm front lifts north
Monday morning, with winds becoming more southwesterly. Then a
cold front will push through late Monday night, shifting winds
to westerly. At this time, winds are forecast to remain below
advisory thresholds, but a few periods could ultimately contain
stronger winds if atmospheric mixing is greater.

No marine hazards expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds WNW Tuesday
before turning E Wed morning then SE late Wednesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB